Crash + Bailout = Easy Explanation

Folks, I'm just as concerned about this as you are. I mean, I'm sitting here watching my Krispy Kreme stock options tumble like that skier in the old Wide World of Sports intro, and I think to myself, well, how did we get here?

It's real simple. The near extinction of long-term thinking and the constant pull of greed.

Sustainable growth? Investing for the long-term gain? Nope, in this frenetic "now, now, now" world, you're only as good as your last quarter. If you're not flipping stocks and houses like pancakes, you're a failure. That's the mentality of the i-banker. I know because I know i-bankers. Personally. Lots of 'em, in fact. I hear their dreams, doubts and horror stories. I hear about the pressures put on them by their firms and themselves. Their skewed definition of "success." The quick buck is the sexy buck. Sustainable growth and bulletproof portfolios? Ain't nobody doin' that but the old coots. Old stinkin' rich coots, but old coots nonetheless. Ah, but who's laughing now? (I mean, besides the Chinese of course...)

Making social plans with these guys is nearly pointless. The weekend is a vague abstraction, next week is a mirage, and next month is an urban myth. I am reminded of what Brian Eno said about how his concept of here and now changed when he moved to New York. He quickly learned that here meant "this room" and now meant "this five minutes."

This haunted him for a good long while and ultimately led to his involvement in The Long Now Foundation, and organization devoted to promoting creative & responsible long-term thinking and providing a counterpoint to today's faster/cheaper mindset. Since finding their site (via SF writer Neal Stephenson I think), I've been picking through their library of recorded seminars like a well-stocked used CD store that none of my music-head friends have found and pilfered yet. (If you listen to one and one only, I'd steer you to the mp3 of Paul Saffo's talk, "Embracing Uncertainty: The Secret to Effective Forecasting." Great stuff there, including a discussion of "indicators" - something we'll be coming back to in this space again.)

As for our old friend greed, it's as old as civilization itself and is the elephant in the room that most of the talking heads in the room continue to sidestep and ignore. (To their credit, the talking heads without a stake in the game zero right in on this, but their salient points and simmering indignation is consistently met by the blameworthy with deafening and well-funded silence & deflection. I tell you, it's enough to make you want to hurl a can of tuna straight through the fucking TV screen sometimes.) Folks, here's the thing about rich folks. (And I'm talking about the really, really rich here.) Their singlemost defining characteristic is this:

They are rich. And they intend to stay that way.



File away as needed, but don't ever forget it.